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Delta variant could overload Canadian hospitals this winter | Coronavirus

In the past week, there are an average of 758 cases per day in Canada and 18 deaths. There are just over 1,100 Canadians hospitalized, including just over 500 in intensive care.

The national reproduction rate has remained unchanged since mid-April (under 1), a sign that the epidemic is currently under control.

Short-term forecasts point to a slowdown in the growth in the number of cases and deaths across the country. However, the situation could change as early as August.

It will be a great summer. What I am watching is the reopening in each province. It will tell us if we will have an upsurge, says Dr. Theresa Tam, Canada’s Chief Public Health Officer.

If contacts increase by 50% or more and the Delta variant (native to India) gains momentum, there could be around 2,000 new cases per day in Canada in August.

This confirms the need for a cautious approach to the relaxation of sanitary measures. It is enough to remain vigilant. We have to keep the cases low.

A quote from:Howard Njoo, Deputy Chief Public Health Officer of Canada

What will be the impact of the Delta variant?

In fact, according to PHAC forecasts, hospital capacity across the country could be exceeded in January if another wave is caused by the Delta variant, the agency says. This could be much more important than the one we experienced this winter.

At the height of the crisis this winter, there were around 15 hospitalizations per 100,000 people. If the Delta variant were to gain the upper hand, this figure could double and exceed 30 hospitalizations per 100,000 inhabitants next January.

A wave caused by the Delta variant would likely affect young people more, since they are less vaccinated. The more young people who are vaccinated, the more we can avoid this wave, says Dr. Njoo.

Graph showing the curve with and without the Delta variant.

The more contagious and severe Delta variant could lead to a larger-than-expected resurgence this fall and winter.

Photo: Public Health Agency of Canada

According to’ASPC, there was a fourfold increase in the number of cases of Delta in Canada between April 25 and May 23. Based on data compiled by CBC and Radio-Canada, there are currently just over 3000 cases in the country linked to the Delta variant (originating in India).

The agency says 18% of cases were sequenced in May. Now that the number of cases is decreasing, several regions will succeed in sequencing almost 100% of the cases. Increased surveillance would help reduce the chances of the Delta variant multiplying rapidly.

Remember that the Delta variant is 50% more transmissible than the Alpha variant. Delta cases are 54% more likely to be hospitalized than cases related to the Alpha variant (discovered in the UK).

The Delta variant is also the cause of the recent exponential increase in cases in Great Britain. There are now more than 14,000 new cases per day in the UK, compared with a plateau of 2,000 daily cases in April and May.

Fortunately, if enough Canadians are vaccinated this fall, it will be possible to prevent another wave and hospital capacity overrun, the agency believes.

The majority of Delta cases in Canada are unvaccinated or partially vaccinated people.

Vaccines offer strong protection against serious illnesses. Do not do things by halves, you need two doses of the vaccine.

A quote from:Howard Njoo, Deputy Chief Public Health Officer of Canada

We need to vaccinate more than 75% of the population to deal with this variant. The second dose is very important against Deltaadds Dr. Tam.

According to the latest Canadian data:

  • 0.14% of people vaccinated were infected more than 14 days after their first dose;

  • 0.08% of fully vaccinated people were infected more than 7 days after the second dose.

Since the start of the vaccination campaign, nearly 39 million doses have been delivered to the country, of which more than 34 million have been injected. The agency says that as of next week, a total of 50 million doses will have been delivered, and that is enough to fully immunize 75% of the eligible population.

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